News from Asia suggests cars are going the way of horse-drawn carriages. Toyota, the world's biggest auto manufacturer by sales, plans to shut production at all its Japanese plants over 11 days in February and March. Korea's Hyundai is so desperate to rack up US sales it has promised to take cars back if the buyer becomes unemployed – a rather expensive option in current markets. General Motors, meantime, unveiled its slowest growth rate in China in at least six years last year, further evidence that the world's second biggest car market is slamming on the brakes. Chinese passenger car sales fell 12 per cent year-on-year in November.
Japanese and Korean carmakers are partly responding to US pain: Toyota's sales fell 37 per cent year-on-year in December in the US, while Hyundai Motor's sales almost halved. Japan, also in recession, is fallow ground too. Passenger car sales fell 3.3 per cent last year, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers' Association, which is predicting a 5 per cent fall this year. Some forecasters reckon sales in China could actually drop after registering a 7 per cent increase last year.
Carmakers, increasingly forced to rely on emerging markets, hope this will not come to pass. Optimism is boosted by China's fiscal stimulus and other administrative measures being mulled by the government. These include a reduction in purchase taxes, which now make up 10 per cent of the cost price. Bulls also point to cheaper petrol, which could encourage sales among more price-sensitive buyers. Even so, enthusiasm should be tempered. China's car industry is still in a glut, and prices will likely continue to fall this year for mid and larger-sized cars. Competition is strong, and – as in other markets – protectionist measures have their allure. Already Beijing is considering plans to oblige government bodies to buy fleets of cars made by Chinese companies. Never mind Detroit. It's grim out east too.
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来自亚洲的消息显示，汽车正在步上马车的后尘。全球销量最大的汽车制造商丰田(Toyota)，计划在2、3月份让所有日本工厂停产11天。韩国的现代(Hyundai)如此迫切渴望提高美国市场销量，以至于承诺若顾客失业，可将汽车退回——在当前市场状况下，这是一种代价颇为高昂的做法。与此同时，通用汽车(General Motors)透露，去年在中国市场取得的增幅是至少6年来最小的，进一步证明全球第二大汽车市场正在“刹车”。去年11月，中国轿车销量同比下降12%。
日本和韩国汽车制造商在一定程度上回应了美国市场的不景气：丰田去年12月在美国市场的销量同比下降37%，而现代汽车的销量几乎减半。日本本身也处于经济衰退，市场也相当低迷。根据日本汽车制造商协会(Japan Automobile Manufacturers' Association)的数据，去年日本轿车销量下降3.3%，今年预计将下降5%。一些预测者推测，中国汽车销量在去年增长7%之后，今年可能出现下降。
对日趋被迫依赖新兴市场的汽车制造商来说，当然希望这一预测不会成为现实。中国的财政刺激方案和政府正在酝酿的其它行政措施，增强了人们的乐观情绪。这些措施包括削减汽车购置税——目前该税占汽车售价的10%。乐观人士还指出，汽油价格的下降可能会鼓励对价格比较敏感的买家下决心买车。即便如此，这些乐观情绪也应当降温。中国的汽车产业仍处于供过于求的状态，大中型汽车的价格今年可能继续下跌。竞争相当激烈，而且就像其它市场一样，保护主义措施自有其吸引力。北京已在考虑相关计划，要求政府机构必须采购国产汽车。别管底特律。东方的景象也光明不到哪里去。
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